Bush II's post-September 11 words and deeds promise more wars and no peace.

More civilians have been killed in Afghanistan since September 11 than were killed in New York. Meanwhile, the US-led campaign against "rogue states" that support "terrorists" is being echoed from Israel to India, contributing to heightened tension and violence.

Despite the establishment of a new government in Kabul, the US military presence in Afghanistan has grown beyond 4,000 active troops, supported by some 750 Canadian forces serving under US command. There is no indication that the US plans to quickly end its military presence in this strategic oil-rich region.

Meanwhile, pundits speculate about the next US target in the war on terrorism, and refuse to challenge the premise that the US should freely intervene wherever it sees a security threat.

This January, Bush suggested the US military should prepare to fight new wars such as those in Afghanistan, using just-in-time intelligence, US special forces and precision high tech air strikes, and relying on local forces for most of the ground fighting.

Military threats are increasingly a political strategy and a form of psychological warfare, designed to achieve the security goals and economic agenda of the US and its allies.

George Bush,in his State of the Union address highlighted the ongoing "terrorist threat", particularly singling out the "rogue states" of Iraq,Iran and North Korea The leading targets The question is not whether war, but when and who will be the next target. There are several in line:

1. Iraq. Saddam Hussein is once again becoming Public Enemy Number One. Propaganda focuses on alleged Iraq manufacture of biological weapons and the threat that terrorists will use them against the US. This mobilizes the US population for war against Iraq, but the case is weak and self-serving. No real links have been found between Iraq and attacks in the US; indeed anthrax incidents appear domestically based.

International opinion opposes attacking Iraq and the extremely harsh sanctions policy that has led to the death of well over a million Iraqi civilians, including some 6,000 children a month. Nor is there a Northern Alliance in place ready to do most of the fighting. For the moment, given other tensions like India-Pakistan, action is on hold. But there is little doubt Washington wants to finish the job started by Bush Senior during th 1991 Gulf War.

2. Somalia. The movie, Black Hawk Down, epitomizes the new war propaganda. It pits 100 brave US troops against 5,000 hostile Somalis. In the last UN Somali mission in the early 90's, the Clinton administration got cold feet and pulled out after some US casualties. But some in the US now argue the Somali government is unable to enforce law and order against terrorism and Somalia offers a far less thorny place to secure victory than Iraq.
3. Philippines. US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says 600 US military trainers (including 160 special forces) will arrive in the Philippines in February and the Philippene government has accepted $US 100 million in military aid. The named target is the Islamic group Abu Sayef. But the Philippine military has also been waging a dirty counter-insurgency war, in the southern Philippines against other popular and nationalist forces as well as against groups like the New People's Army deemed "terrorist" by the US. Many Filipinos are demanding US troops out.
4. Colombia. Colombia is the third largest US aid recipient after Israel and Egypt. Plan Colombia offered massive aid against "narco-terrorism".

In January, Colombian President Andres Pastrana threatened to break off three-old-year peace talks with FARC guerrillas unless they agreed to a ceasefire. The Colombian army and paramilitaries threatened and remain poised (though the deadline is now April) to attack and occupy the Switzerland-size territory granted the FARC as part of the talks.

This would mark a sharp escalation of military conflict.The Bush administration is exploring whether it can play the FARC is terrorist card to eliminate current US Congressional restrictions on US military aid to Colombia. Colombian President is playing his part by calling for US support to fight the guerillas.

5. Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez has been sharply criticized by the US for failing to uncritically line up with Bush's " anti-terrorist policies." A business-led opposition is stirring. The US wants full compliance with neo-liberal economic policies. Is the US, as in pre-1973 Chile, laying the ground for a coup.